Was Iran months away from producing a nuclear bomb?

20 minutes ago Share Save David Gritten BBC News Share Save

NurPhoto via Getty Images Iran insists its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful and that it enriches uranium to produce fuel for power plants like Bushehr

Israel has struck dozens of targets across Iran, damaging the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and assassinating top military commanders and nuclear scientists in Tehran. After the first wave of attacks on Thursday night, the Iranian foreign minister condemned what he called Israel's "reckless" attacks on his country's "peaceful nuclear facilities". Iran has since launched retaliatory air strikes on Israel. Abbas Araghchi said Natanz was operated under the monitoring of the global nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and that the strikes on the facility risked a "radiological disaster". However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the operation was necessary to "roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival". He said Israel had acted because "if not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time". "It could be a year. It could be within a few months," he warned.

Is there evidence Iran was working on a nuclear bomb?

The Israeli military said it had accumulated intelligence showing that "concrete progress" had been made "in the Iranian regime's efforts to produce weapons components adapted for a nuclear bomb", including a uranium metal core and a neutron source initiator for triggering the nuclear explosion. Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the US-based Arms Control Association, said Israel's prime minister "did not present any clear or compelling evidence that Iran was on the brink of weaponizing". "Iran has been at a near-zero breakout for months," she told the BBC, referring to the time it would take Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one bomb if it chose to do so. "Similarly, the assessment that Iran could develop a crude nuclear weapon within a few months is not new." She said some of Iran's nuclear activities would be applicable to developing a bomb, but US intelligence agencies had assessed that Iran was not engaged in key weaponization work. This March, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Congress that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium was "at its highest levels" and "unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons". But she also said the US intelligence community "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme that he suspended in 2003". "If Netanyahu was purely motivated by Iran's proliferation risk, Israel would likely have shared that intelligence with the United States and the initial attack would likely have targeted all of Iran's key nuclear facilities," Ms Davenport added. Last week, the IAEA said in its latest quarterly report that Iran had amassed enough uranium enriched up to 60% purity - a short, technical step away from weapons grade, or 90% - to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. That was "a matter of serious concern", given the proliferation risks, it added. The agency also said it could not provide assurance that the Iranian nuclear programme was exclusively peaceful because Iran was not complying with its investigation into man-made uranium particles discovered by inspectors at three undeclared nuclear sites.

What do we know about Iran's nuclear programme?

Iran has always said that its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful and that it has never sought to develop a nuclear weapon. However, a decade-long investigation by the IAEA found evidence that Iran conducted "a range of activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device" from the late 1980s until 2003, when projects under what was known as "Project Amad" were halted. Iran continued with some activities until 2009 - when Western powers revealed the construction of the Fordo underground enrichment facility - but after that there were "no credible indications" of weapons development, the agency concluded. In 2015, Iran agreed a deal with six world powers under which it accepted restrictions on its nuclear activities and allowed rigorous monitoring by the IAEA's inspectors in return for relief from crippling sanctions. Key limits covered its production of enriched uranium, which is used to make reactor fuel but also nuclear weapons. But US President Donald Trump abandoned the deal during his first term in 2018, saying it did too little to stop a pathway to a bomb, and reinstated US sanctions. Iran retaliated by increasingly breaching the restrictions - particularly those relating to enrichment. Under the nuclear deal, no enrichment was permitted at Fordo for 15 years. However, in 2021 Iran resumed enriching uranium to 20% purity in 2021. On Thursday, the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years. Iran said it would respond to the resolution by setting up a new uranium enrichment facility at a "secure location" and by replacing first-generation centrifuges used to enrich uranium with more advanced, sixth-generation machines at the Fordo enrichment plant.

Reuters Israeli strikes in Tehran on Thursday night targeted nuclear scientists and military commanders

What damage has Israel done to Iran's nuclear infrastructure?

The Israeli military said on Friday that its first round of air strikes damaged the underground centrifuge hall at Natanz, as well as critical infrastructure that enabled the site to operate. The IAEA's director general, Rafael Grossi, told the UN Security Council that the above-ground pilot fuel enrichment plant (PFEP) and electricity infrastructure at Natanz was destroyed. There was no indication of a physical attack on the underground hall, but that the loss of power may have damaged the centrifuges there, he added. The US-based Institute for Science and International Security said the destruction of the PFEP was significant because the facility had been used to produced 60%-enriched uranium and also to develop advanced centrifuges. Ms Davenport also said the strikes on Natanz would increase Iran's "breakout time", but that it was too soon to assess the full impact. "We will not have a clear picture of how quickly Iran could resume operations there or if Iran was able to divert uranium until the IAEA can access the site," she explained.

Later on Friday, Iran informed the IAEA that Israel had attacked the Fordo enrichment plant and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre. The Israeli military said a strike in Isfahan had "dismantled a facility for producing metallic uranium, infrastructure for reconverting enriched uranium, laboratories, and additional infrastructure". "So long as Fordo remains operational, Iran still poses a near-term proliferation risk. Tehran has the option to ratchet up enrichment to weapons grade levels at the site or divert uranium to an undeclared location," Ms Davenport said. Israel's prime minister also said the operation would continue for "as many days as it takes to remove this threat". But that is an unrealistic goal, according to Ms Davenport. "Strikes can destroy facilities and target scientists but cannot erase Iran's nuclear knowledge. Iran can rebuild, and more quickly now than in the past due to its advances in uranium enrichment," she said.

Man arrested over shooting of Scots in Spanish bar

Just now Share Save David Cowan BBC Scotland home affairs correspondent Share Save

SPINDRIFT Eddie Lyons Jr (left) and Ross Monaghan (right) were killed in the shooting at the bar in Spain

A man suspected of murdering two senior figures from a Scottish organised crime group in a Spanish bar has been arrested. The BBC understands Michael Riley was taken into custody in Liverpool by Merseyside Police under an international arrest warrant issued by the Spanish authorities. Ross Monaghan, 43, and Eddie Lyons Jnr, 46, were shot dead at Monaghans Bar in Fuengirola in the Costa Del Sol on 31 May. Both men were connected to the Lyons family, a major organised crime group based in the west of Scotland.

The two men had been watching the Champions League final with friends when they were targeted at the bar on the Andalusian town's beachfront.

According to medical reports, Eddie Lyons Jnr died after being hit by a single bullet outside the bar in front of friends and customers. CCTV also showed the gunman pursuing Monaghan inside the pub and firing more shots, leaving him fatally injured. Scottish detectives have been helping the Spanish police with their investigation, providing information on the men's backgrounds. In the wake of the killings, Police Scotland issued a statement saying there was no intelligence to suggest the deaths were linked to an ongoing gangland feud in the east and west of Scotland's central belt. More than 40 people have been arrested following a series of violent incidents, including alleged attempted murders and firebombings. The force also said there was nothing to suggest that the shooting was planned in Scotland.

The men had been watching the Champions League final at Monaghans Bar

'I used to spend £50 there': What's gone wrong at Poundland?

10 hours ago Share Save Emma Haslett and Charlotte Edwards Business reporters Share Save

Sharon Carroll Poundland used to be a big attraction when everything was £1, according to Sharon Carroll

Sharon Carroll once shopped so much at her local Poundland that her friends described her as "Mrs Poundland". "I'd just buy so many things," says Sharon. "I'd spend £40 to £50. "When everything used to be £1 it was a big attraction." But when the company began to change its pricing strategy, increasing the prices of some products from £1, the 45-year-old says she cut down on her purchases. "The quality of the products was also going down and you were paying more for things."

Other shoppers also told the BBC that they were put off when the retailer started putting its prices up. This week, the struggling budget chain was sold for (appropriately) £1 by its owner Pepco to a US investment firm, Gordon Brothers. Up to 100 stores are at risk of closure. The £1 promise was Poundland's "most compelling proposition", says Howard Lake, a retail consultant at Kantar. "Removing this identity alienated its core shopper base." The company clearly agreed. After it raised some prices from £1 in 2017, earlier this year it said it was returning to its roots, increasing the number of products it offered that cost £1 or less from 1,500 to 2,400, almost half its range.

Small towns

Poundland has 825 stores in the UK, with around 16,000 staff. Many of those shops are former Woolworths or Wilko branches, which it hoovered up after the two brands collapsed. Poundland became the biggest occupant of ex-Woolworths stores after the retailer went into administration in 2009, taking on 93 of its stores, more than 10% of the Woolworths estate. In September 2023 it took over the leases of 71 former Wilko stores. Often, these stores were in the kinds of small towns where other large retailers do not have a presence. "They might have had a Woolworths, a bank and a charity shop," says Jonathan de Mello, a retail analyst and the founder of JDM Retail. Elizabeth Gray loves going into her local Poundland in Bangor, Northern Ireland. Recently, she found a pair of small ceramic houses in the store, which were a copy of a design she had seen at Zara. "We don't have a Zara near where I live," she says.

Elizabeth Gray Elizabeth Gray, pictured with the ceramic houses she bought in Poundland, says she's "kind of in love" with the retailer

Poundland's presence in small towns has been crucial to fostering a sense of customer loyalty, says retail psychologist Kate Nightingale. "Simply being present in people's daily rituals is one of the strongest ways to build interdependence. "Presence plus reliance are some of the most important qualities of loyal relationships and it is no different to relationships we build with brands." But de Mello says when Poundland expanded into small towns, not enough people went in, which hit their bottom line. "In the small locations that they've opened multiple stores in, I feel the volumes aren't there in terms of footfall, unfortunately."

Increased competition

In 2016 Poundland expanded into fashion, beginning the roll-out of its Pep&Co clothing range, but this soon faced problems. In a trading update in May 2024, the company admitted that changes to the way it sourced clothing had reduced the number of sizes on offer.

Reuters Poundland's range covers everything from food to clothing to homewares and baby products

While the wide range of products stocked by Poundland may have been handy for consumers, it became a problem for the brand. It stocked so many different products – from food to clothing, to homewares and baby products – that it became, says Kantar's Howard Lake, a "supermarket-general store hybrid". That made it vulnerable to competition from numerous other brands. On the food side, there are Aldi and Lidl, whose UK presence has grown rapidly in recent years. On the homewares side are Home Bargains and B&M. And on the clothing side are Shein and Temu, the cheap Chinese exporters which have enjoyed a surge in popularity among British shoppers. Ultimately, says Lake, consumers found these other offers "far more attractive".

Poundland told the BBC: "Our missteps have been well documented and those include the execution of Pepco-sourced clothing and general merchandise product ranges in a way that didn't fully align with UK & Ireland customers' expectations. "We're looking forward to having the opportunity to put those missteps right as we put our recovery plan in place."

Shoppers like Elinor Martin in Sutton Coldfield hope the company succeeds. She uses Poundland to pick up snacks for her sons' packed lunches, stationery and birthday cards for school, plus shampoo, shower gel and cleaning products. She says she would miss her local branch if it were to close. "I can get things I need at Poundland. I find things cheaper there [than local supermarkets]." Elizabeth Gray in Bangor says she would miss her local store too if it went. "I would be sad if it closed," she says. "I'm kind of in love with Poundland."

Vigil for boy who died after M4 minibus crash

3 hours ago Share Save Share Save

Thames Valley Police Othniel Adoma, from Bracknell, died more than three weeks after the crash

A vigil has taken place for an 11-year-old boy who was one of two children to die after a minibus overturned on a motorway slip road. Othniel Adoma, from Bracknell, Berkshire, died more than three weeks after the single vehicle crash. A white Ford Transit minibus overturned on the link road at junction 10 of the M4 to the A329(M) near Reading on 11 May. A six-year-old boy was also killed in the crash. The vigil took place at Birch Hill Recreation Ground in Bracknell on Friday evening, with candles lit and balloons released in Othniel's memory.

The vigil took place at Birch Hill Recreation Ground in Bracknell

Organisers described it as a "time to reflect, to cry, to laugh and to find comfort in one another - and in his family - as we remember the light Othniel brought to all of our lives".

Balloons were released in Othniel's memory

Mitch Noble, who helped organise the vigil and a fundraiser for the family which has raised more than £8,000, called Othniel a "super-friendly and nice lad". Mr Noble, who is also the coach of Crowthorne FC where Othniel was a player, described him as "quite a shy, timid lad, until he's got a football at his feet". He added: "He would just spring to life… he was dazzling... he scored 42 goals out of 17 games this season and he was playing a year up. "He was a bit of a joker with his teammates and with his friends. Everyone loved him… he was so charismatic." One of Othniel's teammates said at the vigil: "There's a hole in the team. He brought us together and it was just a community, a family."

Thames Valley Police Othniel was a "dazzling" footballer, his coach said

Five other children injured in the crash have since been discharged from hospital. Thames Valley Police said its serious collision investigation unit was investigating the crash and confirmed no arrests had been made.

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