UK's pension triple lock to cost three times' higher

27 minutes ago Share Save Kevin Peachey Cost of living correspondent Share Save

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The cost of the state pension triple lock is forecast to be three times' higher by the end of the decade than its original estimate, according to the government's official forecaster. The triple lock, which came into force in 2011, means that the state pension rises each year in line with either inflation, wage increases or 2.5% - whichever is the highest. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the annual cost is estimated to reach £15.5bn by 2030. Overall, the OBR said the UK's public finances were in a "relatively vulnerable position" owing to pressure from recent government U-turns on planned spending cuts.

The recent reversal of proposed the welfare bill, on top of restoring winter fuel payments for most claimants, have contributed to a continued rise in government debt, according to the report. It said: "Efforts to put the UK's public finances on a more sustainable footing have met with only limited and temporary success in recent years in the aftermath of the shocks, debt has also continued to rise and borrowing remained elevated because governments have reversed plans to consolidate the public finances. "Planned tax rises have been reversed, and, more significantly, planned spending reductions have been abandoned." Spending on the state pension has steadily risen, the OBR said, because the triple lock and a growing number of people above the state pension age. It added: "Due to inflation and earnings volatility over its first two decades in operation, the triple lock has cost around three times more than initial expectations."

'Unsustainable'

The OBR said the cost of the state pension has risen steadily over the past eight decades, from around 2% of the UK economy to a current 5%, equating to £138bn. It is forecast to increase to 7.7% of the economy by the early 2070s. Richard Hughes, chair of the OBR, said the triple lock "is one of a series of age-related pressures that pushes public spending upwards steadily over a number of years". "When you project trends in both pension spending and health and other age-related spending forward, the UK public finances are in an unsustainable position in the long-run," he said. "The UK cannot afford the array of promises that are displayed to the public if you just if you leave those unchanged based on a reasonable assumption about growth rates in the economy and in tax revenues."

Pensioner protection

The UK's state pension is the second-largest item in the government budget after health. In 2011, the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition brought in the triple lock to ensure the value of the state pension was not overtaken by the increase in the cost of living or the incomes of working people. Since then, the non-earnings-linked element of the lock has been triggered "in eight of the 13 years to date", the OBR pointed out. That was because inflation "has turned out to be significantly more volatile" than expected. In April 2025, the earnings link meant the state pension increased by 4.1%, making it worth: £230.25 a week for the full, new flat-rate state pension (for those who reached state pension age after April 2016) - a rise of £472 a year

£176.45 a week for the full, old basic state pension (for those who reached state pension age before April 2016) - a rise of £363 a year Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said the Labour government will keep the triple lock until the end of the current Parliament.

'Hero' dad, twin girls and riverside campers among Texas flood victims

31 minutes ago Share Save Rachel Hagan and James FitzGerald BBC News Share Save

BBC

Young attendees and staff at summer camps are among the victims of flash floods in Texas - along with teachers, a football coach, and a "hero" father who smashed open a window to free his family amid rising water. Authorities say at least 104 people are known to have died - most of them in Kerr County. At least 27 girls and staff died at one location, Camp Mystic, alone. Many of the victims have been identified in the US media by their relatives. Here is what we know so far about those who have been named - many of whom were children.

Renee Smajstrla

Camp Mystic This picture of Renee Smajstrla was taken at Camp Mystic on Thursday, her uncle wrote on Facebook

Camp Mystic is a nearly century-old Christian summer camp for girls on the banks of the Guadalupe River near the community of Hunt. Operated by generations of the same family since the 1930s, the camp's website bills itself as a place for girls to grow "spiritually" in a "wholesome" Christian atmosphere "to develop outstanding personal qualities and self-esteem". Renee Smajstrla, 8, was at the camp when floodwaters swept through, her uncle said in a Facebook post. "Renee has been found and while not the outcome we prayed for, the social media outreach likely assisted the first responders in helping to identify her so quickly," wrote Shawn Salta. "We are thankful she was with her friends and having the time of her life, as evidenced by this picture from yesterday," he wrote. "She will forever be living her best life at Camp Mystic."

Lila Bonner

Nine-year-old Lila Bonner, a Dallas native, was found dead after flooding near Camp Mystic, according to NBC News. "In the midst of our unimaginable grief, we ask for privacy and are unable to confirm any details at this time," her family told the news outlet. "We ache with all who loved her and are praying endlessly."

Eloise Peck

Eloise Peck, 8, was also confirmed dead after the deluge at Camp Mystic, according to CBS News Texas. US media reported that she was best friends with Lila Bonner. A sign posted outside Eloise Peck's home said "she lost her life in the tragic flooding", and asked for privacy for the family.

Sarah Marsh

Camp Mystic

Sarah Marsh, a student at Cherokee Bend Elementary School in Alabama, would have entered third grade in August. She, too, was attending Camp Mystic and her grandmother, Debbie Ford Marsh, posted online to say that her granddaughter was among the girls killed. "We will always feel blessed to have had this beautiful spunky ray of light in our lives. She will live on in our hearts forever!" she wrote. In a post on Facebook, Alabama Senator Katie Britt said she was "heartbroken over the loss of Sarah Marsh, and we are keeping her family in our thoughts and prayers during this unimaginable time".

Janie Hunt

Nine-year-old Janie Hunt from Dallas, was attending the same camp and died in the floods. Her grandmother Margaret Hunt told The New York Times she went to Camp Mystic with six of her cousins, who were all safe. Margaret said Janie's parents had to visit a funeral home and identify their daughter. Janie was a great-granddaughter of the oil baron William Herbert Hunt.

Hanna and Rebecca Lawrence

John Lawrence Hanna (left) and Rebecca Lawrence

Twin sisters Hanna and Rebecca Lawrence, 8, also died after attending Mystic, their grandfather told the Miami Herald. "It has been an unimaginable time for all of us," grandfather David Lawrence Jr told the newspaper in a statement. "Hanna and Rebecca gave their parents John and Lacy and sister Harper, and all in our family, so much joy." David had earlier clarified that the twins' elder sister Harper was safe.

Anna Margaret Bellows

Family members confirmed to the Houston Chronicle that eight-year-old Anna Margaret Bellows was another of the Camp Mystic flood victims. Patricia Bellows, speaking to ABC News, praised the camp counsellors who tried to save the girls, including her daughter. "The main thing I have to say is unending gratitude for the brave camp counsellors who safely evacuated so many campers, and to the two camp counsellors who gave their lives trying to protect my baby," she said.

Linnie McCown

Family also confirmed to the Austin American-Statesman newspaper that eight-year-old camper Linnie McCown was among the dead. "It's with the heaviest of hearts we must share that our sweet little Linnie is with the Lord in heaven," her father Michael posted on social media.

Mary Kathryn Jacobe

The death of another eight-year-old Mystic camper was confirmed by her family to KTRK, a station affiliated with ABC News, and Fox 26. "Our hearts are shattered and our words fail us," her cousin was quoted as saying by Fox 26.

Hadley Hanna

Hadley Hanna, an eight-year-old from Dallas, was another Camp Mystic attendee who died in the historic floods, according to CBS News.

Mary Stevens

A family spokesman said Mary Stevens, who attended an elementary school in Austin, was also among the victims, according to the Austin American-Statesman. "Our world is shattered but I have peace getting your letters and knowing you were having the time of your life at camp and had a dance party with all of your friends before the Lord decided to take you from us. He has bigger plans for you," Stacy Stevens, the girl's mother, wrote in a social media post shared by the spokesman.

Lainey Landry

Lainey Landry was another young Camp Mystic victim who died in the Kerr County flood. The non-profit A Voice For The Voiceless said the child's great-aunt confirmed Lainey's death to the organisation directly. A family member called the discovery of her body "somewhat of a miracle itself", A Voice For The Voiceless wrote on social media.

Watch: Senator Ted Cruz talks about the children lost at Camp Mystic

Dick Eastland

Richard "Dick" Eastland, the longtime co-owner and co-director of Camp Mystic, died while being flown to a Houston hospital. The news was confirmed by Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, who attended Bible study with Dick and described him as a pillar of the local community. Dick's wife, Tweety, was found safe at their riverside home, according to Texas Public Radio. The Eastlands had run Camp Mystic, a girls' summer camp on the banks of the Guadalupe River, since 1974, becoming the third generation of their family to do so. According to the Washington Post, the couple had 11 grandchildren and much of the extended family was involved in camp life. The couple's eldest son, Richard, manages the camp kitchen and their youngest, Edward, directs operations with his wife.

Chloe Childress

Kincaid School Chloe Childress

Chloe Childress, 18, was one of Mystic's camp counsellors. Her family said in a statement that she "lived a beautiful life that saturated those around her with contagious joy, unending grace, and abiding faith". "Returning as a counselor to the place she loved so dearly, Chloe was looking forward to dedicating her summer days to loving and mentoring young girls at Camp Mystic." The headteacher of Kinkaid School, where Ms Childress was a student, said: "Chloe made space for others to feel safe, valued, and brave. She understood what it meant to be part of a community, and more than that, she helped build one." She was due to start studies at the University of Texas in Austin later this year, ABC News reported.

Jane Ragsdale

Heart O' the Hills Jane Ragsdale was described as the "heart and soul" of Heart O' the Hills camp

Heart O' the Hills is another all-girls' camp that sits along the Guadalupe River, which was in the path of Friday's flood. Jane Ragsdale, described as the "heart and soul" of Heart O'Hills, "did not make it", a statement shared on the camp's official website said on Saturday. Ragsdale, who started off as a camper then a counsellor, became the director and co-owner of the camp in 1976. "We are mourning the loss of a woman who influenced countless lives and was the definition of strong and powerful," the statement said. No campers were residing at the site when the floods hit and and most of those who were there have been accounted for, according to the statement.

Julian Ryan

GoFundMe

As floodwaters tore through their trailer in Ingram, Texas, Julian Ryan turned to his fiancée Christina Wilson and said: "I'm sorry, I'm not going to make it. I love y'all" - Christina told Houston television station KHOU. His body wasn't recovered until hours later, after waters had receded. Julian had just finished a late dishwashing shift at a restaurant when the Guadalupe River overflowed early Friday. He and Christina woke to ankle-deep water that quickly rose to their waists. She told the station their bedroom door stuck shut and with water rushing in, Ryan punched through a window to get his family out. He severely cut his arm in the process. Their 13-month-old and 6-year-old sons and his mother survived by floating on a mattress until help could arrive. "He died a hero, and that will never go unnoticed," Connie Salas, Ryan's sister, told KHOU.

Katheryn Eads

Katheryn Eads, 52, was swept away by floodwaters in the Kerrville area of Texas, early on Friday morning after she and her husband, Brian, who told The New York Times, fled their campervan as rising water surged around them. Another camper had offered them a ride and they made it across the street before the vehicle stalled in the flood. Moments later, both were pulled into the current. Brian said he lost sight of his wife after being struck by debris. He survived by clinging onto a tree until he reached dry land. Katheryn's body was later recovered. "God has her now," her mother, Elizabeth Moss Grover, wrote on Facebook. Amy Hutchinson, director of Olive Branch Counselling in Texas, where Katheryn had worked, told The Washington Post she was "a hope and a light to all who knew her… a stellar counsellor and professor."

Jeff Wilson

Humble ISD

Teacher Jeff Wilson was also killed in Kerrville, according to the local school authority, which said he was a "beloved teacher and co-worker" who had served the district for more than 30 years. His wife and son were still missing, according to the post by the Humble Independent School District. The group were on a camping trip when flooding struck, CBS News Austin reported.

Reece and Paula Zunker

The death of another teacher, Reece Zunker, was announced by a second Texan schools authority. The football coach died alongside his wife Paula, according to Kerrville Independent School District. Their two children are still missing, the district's Facebook post added. "Reece was a passionate educator", the Facebook post said. Paula, a former teacher, also "left a lasting mark", the impact of which continued to be felt.

Blair and Brooke Harber

Two sisters from Dallas - 13-year-old Blair Harber and 11-year-old Brooke Harber - were staying with their grandparents along the Guadalupe River when their cabin was washed away, CBS News reported. The deaths were confirmed by St Rita Catholic Community, where Brooke was due to start sixth grade. Blair was preparing to enter eighth grade. "Please keep the Harber family in your prayers during this time of profound grief. May our faith, our love, and our St. Rita community be a source of strength and comfort in the days ahead," said Father Joshua J Whitfield in correspondence with church members. The girls' parents were in a separate cabin and were not harmed. Their grandparents are still unaccounted for.

Bobby and Amanda Martin

Husband and wife Bobby Martin, 46, and Amanda Martin, 44, also lost their lives, Mr Martin's father told the New York Times. They, too, were said to be staying near the river when their vehicle was swept away by rising flood waters. Bobby was described by a friend who spoke to the Houston Chronicle as a keen outdoorsman and attentive friend, and Amanda was the "same shining light".

Tanya Burwick

Walmart employee Tanya Burwick, 62, was driving to work in San Angelo when flood water hit early on Friday, family members said. Her empty vehicle and later her body were found the same day. "She lit up the room and had a laugh that made other people laugh," her daughter Lindsey Burwick was quoted as saying by the AP news agency.

Sally Sample Graves

Grandmother Sally Sample Graves was another victim of the flooding in Kerrville, according to her granddaughter, who posted a tribute on Facebook. A huge wave is said to have destroyed Sally's home. "Her unwavering dedication to family has left an indelible mark on our lives," Sarah Sample wrote. Her father survived the incident, she added.

Kaitlyn Swallow

The death of 22-year-old Kaitlyn Swallow in Williamson County was announced by county officials on Saturday. She was from the Liberty Hill area, and her body was recovered alongside the remains of another person. Officials did not give further information.

John and Julia Burgess

John Burgess, 39, and his family were also camping near the river when floodwaters arrived, family members told KTRK, a station affiliated with ABC News. The body of John's wife Julia was also later found, according to her sister-in-law who posted on Facebook to announce the news. Their couple's two sons were also reported missing after the tragedy, Jennifer Tindall Anderson added in her post.

Mollie Schaffer

Three men found guilty of arson attack for Wagner Group

Three men have been found guilty of an arson attack on a London warehouse linked to Ukraine on behalf of Russian mercenary group Wagner.

Jakeem Rose, 23, Ugnius Asmena, 20, Nii Mensah, 23, were found guilty at the Old Bailey of being recruited to set fire to the industrial unit which sent aid and internet satellite equipment.

The attack was orchestrated by Dylan Earl, 20, and Jake Reeves, 23, who had already admitted aggravated arson on behalf of the Wagner Group - which the UK government says is a proscribed terrorist group.

Around £1 million-worth of damage was caused in the arson attack on the warehouse in in Leyton, east London, on 20 March last year, the trial at the Old Bailey heard.

Five things we now know about the Post Office scandal

41 minutes ago Share Save Tom Espiner BBC business reporter Reporting from The Oval, London Share Save

Getty Images People affected by the Horizon scandal gathered outside the Oval in London on Tuesday where the report was announced

The first report on the findings from an inquiry into the Post Office Horizon IT scandal has been published. It reveals for the first time the full extent of the suffering of sub-postmasters and others who were affected by being wrongly accused of stealing money and false accounting, based on incorrect data. Here are five things we now know as a result.

1. Impact on lives was 'disastrous'

The inquiry heard many harrowing experiences from sub-postmasters who were incorrectly accused of theft and false accounting. The report outlines how the scale of suffering was even greater than thought until now. There had already been stories of two sub-postmasters taking their own lives due to the Horizon scandal – Michael Mann and Martin Griffiths. The report says that more than 13 people may have taken their own lives due to the scandal. Families have said that six sub-postmasters and seven people who were not sub-postmasters killed themselves, after Horizon showed "illusory" shortfalls in branch accounts. Apart from this, at least 59 people told the inquiry they had contemplated suicide at various points, of whom 10 attempted to take their own lives. One sub-postmaster told the inquiry: "The mental stress was so great for me that I had a mental breakdown and turned to alcohol as I sunk further into depression. I attempted suicide on several occasions and was admitted to mental health institutions twice." In the report, inquiry chair Sir Wyn Williams described the impact on those affected as "disastrous", and said it was not easy to "exaggerate the trauma" that people went through being investigated and prosecuted. Many sub-postmasters gave evidence of psychiatric and psychological problems that have "dogged them" and are still ongoing. If you have been affected by the issues in this story the BBC Action Line features a list of organisations which are ready to provide support and advice.

2. Post Office knew its IT system had errors

A recurring question throughout the inquiry was: how much did the Post Office know that the Horizon data it was using to prosecute people was not accurate? Sir Wyn is very robust in his initial response and says there will be more on this in the next volume of the report. He says that senior and not so senior people in the Post Office "knew, or at the very least should have known, that legacy Horizon was capable of error" – legacy Horizon was the version in use until 2010. "Yet, for all practical purposes, throughout the lifetime of legacy Horizon, the Post Office maintained the fiction that its data was always accurate." After 2010, the next version of Horizon also contained "bugs, errors and defects". Sir Wyn says: "I am satisfied that a number of employees of Fujitsu and the Post Office knew that this was so."

3. Post Office and Fujitsu behaved unacceptably

The report says many hundreds of people were wrongly convicted of criminal offences, and thousands were held responsible for losses that were illusory. Just a reminder of the numbers: about 1,000 people were prosecuted, and only between 50 and 60 were not convicted. Thousands of employees were suspended, and many later had their contracts terminated. These people were victims of "wholly unacceptable behaviour" by individuals employed or associated with the Post Office and Fujitsu, and from time to time by the organisations themselves, Sir Wyn says.

4. Post Office was too adversarial on compensation

There have been a number of settlements and compensation schemes for sub-postmasters. While some have been satisfied by the level of compensation available, many who had more complex claims were not. Sir Wyn says three of the compensation schemes have been "bedevilled with unjustifiable delays" and redress has not been delivered promptly. Moreover, with difficult and substantial claims, "on too many occasions" the Post Office and its legal advisers had been "unnecessarily adversarial" in making initial offers for compensation, driving down the level of eventual financial settlements. Sir Wyn recommends three things when it comes to compensation: A mechanism to deliver redress "to persons who have been wronged by public bodies", should be established Free legal advice should be extended to claimants on one of the schemes – the Horizon Shortfall Scheme. Close family members of people who have "been most adversely affected by Horizon" should be compensated Sir Wyn estimates that there are currently 10,000 eligible claimants in three compensation schemes, and that number is likely to rise by at least hundreds, if not more.

5. Post Office and Fujitsu told to meet victims

Liverpool players have started to return to the club for pre-season training following the death of team-mate Diogo Jota.

The first set of players were scheduled to come back from their summer break last Friday but that was postponed after Jota, 28, and his 25-year-old brother Andre Silva died in a car accident.

Jota was on his way back to Liverpool for pre-season and, as doctors had advised him against flying because he had undergone minor surgery, he was making the trip by car and ferry.

A large contingent of players and staff from the Anfield club paid their respects to the forward and his brother at a public wake in their native Portugal on Friday.

The funeral took place on Saturday in their hometown of Gondomar, with Reds captain Virgil van Dijk and Scotland defender Andy Robertson carrying floral tributes in honour of Jota and Andre Silva.

Manager Arne Slot was also part of Liverpool's delegation and his side are due to play their first pre-season match against Preston North End at Deepdale on Sunday, 13 July.